{"id":9130,"date":"2023-09-21T08:09:00","date_gmt":"2023-09-21T06:09:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\/dk\/lii-post-1-da-investorer-er-klar-til-gode-nyheder-2\/"},"modified":"2023-09-21T08:09:00","modified_gmt":"2023-09-21T06:09:00","slug":"lii-post-1-da-investorer-er-klar-til-gode-nyheder-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\/dk\/lii-post-1-da-investorer-er-klar-til-gode-nyheder-2\/","title":{"rendered":"LII Post 1 (Da) &#8211; Investorer er klar til gode nyheder"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">De, i &oslash;jeblikket, vigtige elementer i finansmarkederne er n&aelig;ppe overraskende, men det v&aelig;sentlige er, hvad der allerede er indregnet i kurserne.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">At der er en recessionslignende udvikling p&aring; vej i Europa og USA, argumenterer jeg, at aktiemarkederne har reageret negativt p&aring; ad flere omgange. Jeg ser det s&aring;gar, som en mulighed, at USA undg&aring;r det v&aelig;rste, hvilket burde have en positiv effekt p&aring; Wall Street.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Specielt i USA vil nedgangen i v&aelig;ksten delvist blive gennemtvunget af centralbankens, Fed, renteforh&oslash;jelser. Det n&aelig;ste spring i renten p&aring; 0,75 procentpoint bliver ikke nogen overraskelse for nogen overhovedet, og yderligere en rentestigning af samme st&oslash;rrelse er ogs&aring; i kortene.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">I Europa, hos ECB, st&aring;r den ligeledes p&aring; renteforh&oslash;jelser, men her er det ikke den &oslash;konomiske v&aelig;kst der skal bremses, dog skal renten op p&aring; et minimalt niveau. Det tyske obligationsmarked indregnede for nogle f&aring; uger siden en ECB rente p&aring; 3 pct., og jeg forventer ikke, at den kommer h&oslash;jere i denne runde. Ogs&aring; her burde investorerne v&aelig;re forberedt s&aring; langt.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Rimeligvis er den fortsat h&oslash;je inflation en joker i forudsigelserne for finansmarkedernes retning. For inflationen er stadig uventet h&oslash;j, hvor risikoen for nye prisforh&oslash;jelser i alle led er en voksende risiko, og dette underst&oslash;tter de negative forventninger blandt investorerne. &Eacute;n l&oslash;sning er at reducere det offentlige forbrug, hvilket vil d&aelig;mpe bnp-v&aelig;ksten, hvilket obligationsmarkederne formentlig vil reagere positivt p&aring;.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">At Kina og hele Asien bev&aelig;ger sig hastigt frem i 2023, mod ganske gode v&aelig;kstrater er slet ikke indregnet i aktiekurserne. I min optik overser investorerne, at Asien nu udg&oslash;r 40 pct. af den globale &oslash;konomi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Det bidrager ganske givet til de sure politiske miner i Vesten, men problemerne i USA og Europa er nu selvforskyldte. Midtvejsvalget i USA den 8. november l&oslash;ser ikke noget i amerikansk politik, tv&aelig;rtimod, men omvendt overrasker udviklingen ikke.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">I Europa er situationen s&aring; bedr&oslash;velig, at det er &eacute;n af flere grunde til at underv&aelig;gte allokeringen til denne region. Den tyske regering er s&aring; splittet internt om alle sp&oslash;rgsm&aring;l, at den er dysfunktionel og i Frankrig er Pr&aelig;sident Macron blevet til en slags &rdquo;lame duck&rdquo;, Italien ved ingen hvor er p&aring; vej hen.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">I Storbritannien st&aring;r det ikke bedre til. Efter den britiske regerings sidste kaos omkring mini-finansbudgettet, s&aring; h&aring;ber jeg, at alle politiske d&aring;rligdomme er medtaget i investorernes forventninger.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">S&aelig;rdeles interessant bliver de b&oslash;rsnoterede virksomheder selv. Det vil n&aelig;ppe overraske, at der kommer en indtjeningsnedgang i en periode blandt en r&aelig;kke selskaber &ndash; igen, jeg tenderer til at h&aelig;vde at, disse d&aring;rlige nyheder er markedet forberedt p&aring;.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Men specielt de globale virksomheder vil fortsat vokse og blive endnu mere dominante, m&aring;ske endda s&aelig;rligt, hvis der ikke er noget politisk modspil. Dominansen forestiller jeg mig ogs&aring;, at forbrugerne kommer til at m&aelig;rke i stigende grad idet virksomhederne s&aelig;tter prisen p&aring; produkterne, bestemmer kvaliteten og kundernes adgang til service. Denne situation forventer jeg er godt for indtjeningen og endnu et eksempel p&aring; elementer der kan opfattes positivt, men som ikke er indregnet i de &oslash;jeblikkelige kurser.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Det samlede finansmarked er fortsat st\u00e6rkt fokuseret p\u00e5 de mange negative udviklinger i mange \u00f8konomier rundet om i verden, men investorer skal altid v\u00e6re opm\u00e6rksom n\u00e5r alle i finansmarkederne ser i samme retning.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":100,"featured_media":9131,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[5],"class_list":["post-9130","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-public"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>LII Post 1 (Da) - 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