{"id":9113,"date":"2023-05-24T07:05:00","date_gmt":"2023-05-24T05:05:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\/dk\/?p=9113"},"modified":"2023-05-24T07:46:48","modified_gmt":"2023-05-24T05:46:48","slug":"praesident-lulas-pres-pa-centralbanken-kan-bremse-landets-vaekst","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\/dk\/praesident-lulas-pres-pa-centralbanken-kan-bremse-landets-vaekst\/","title":{"rendered":"Pr\u00c3\u00a6sident Lulas pres p\u00c3\u00a5 centralbanken kan bremse landets v\u00c3\u00a6kst"},"content":{"rendered":"

Den brasilianske pr\u00c3\u00a6sident Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva har angrebet Banco Central do Brasil’s (BCB) uafh\u00c3\u00a6ngighed og autonomi p\u00c3\u00a5 baggrund af den vedvarende h\u00c3\u00b8je inflation. Lula sagde, at det nuv\u00c3\u00a6rende niveau for Brasiliens toneangivende rentesats p\u00c3\u00a5 13,75 procent var for h\u00c3\u00b8jt og inflationsm\u00c3\u00a5let p\u00c3\u00a5 3,25 procent for lavt, hvilket antyder et misforhold i pengepolitikken.<\/p>\n

Den ledende centralbankrente bestemmes af the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) (den pengepolitiske komit\u00c3\u00a9), som i \u00c3\u00b8jeblikket ledes af BCB’s centralbankdirekt\u00c3\u00b8r Roberto Campos Neto, der er udpeget af Lulas forg\u00c3\u00a6nger Jair Bolsonaro. Inflationsm\u00c3\u00a5lene fasts\u00c3\u00a6ttes af the National Monetary Council (CMN) (det nationale monet\u00c3\u00a6re r\u00c3\u00a5d), som ud over Campos Neto selv best\u00c3\u00a5r af finansminister Fernando Haddad og planl\u00c3\u00a6gningsminister Simone Tebet.<\/p>\n

Lulas verbale angreb p\u00c3\u00a5 Neto og centralbanken f\u00c3\u00b8rte til bekymring om den pengepolitiske autonomi, hvilket bidrog til den eksisterende usikkerhed om den nye regerings finanspolitik og udl\u00c3\u00b8ste en negativ reaktion fra investorerne.<\/p>\n

Forventningerne til inflationen er blevet opjusteret for 2023, 2024 og 2025, da markedsakt\u00c3\u00b8rerne forventer, at forbrugerpriserne vil stige endnu hurtigere. Copom signalerede s\u00c3\u00a5gar p\u00c3\u00a5 sit seneste m\u00c3\u00b8de, at det m\u00c3\u00a5ske ikke vil v\u00c3\u00a6re muligt at reducere rentesatserne i 2023.<\/p>\n

Som alle andre lande tyede Brasilien, under COVID-19-pandemien, til en ekspansiv finans- og pengepolitik for at st\u00c3\u00b8tte \u00c3\u00b8konomien, herunder ogs\u00c3\u00a5 de mest s\u00c3\u00a5rbare husholdninger. De finanspolitiske reformer, som Brasiliens regering gennemf\u00c3\u00b8rte fra 2017 til 2019, fik BCB til at s\u00c3\u00a6nke renten f\u00c3\u00b8r COVID-19-krisen br\u00c3\u00b8d ud. Faktisk var den toneangivende rente historisk lav: 4,5 procent i januar 2020 og den n\u00c3\u00a5ede ned p\u00c3\u00a5 2,0 procent i august samme \u00c3\u00a5r. Takket v\u00c3\u00a6re tidligere perioder med h\u00c3\u00b8j inflation havde BCB v\u00c3\u00a6ret hurtig til at diagnosticere det inflation\u00c3\u00a6re globale milj\u00c3\u00b8 og var en af de f\u00c3\u00b8rste centralbanker i verden til at stramme sin pengepolitik.<\/p>\n

Selic, udl\u00c3\u00a5nsrenten hos Brasiliens centralbank, steg kraftigt fra 2 procent til 13,75 procent mellem februar 2021 og august 2022. I denne periode toppede den nuv\u00c3\u00a6rende inflation ved 12,13 procent i april 2022 og er siden faldet til 5,6 procent i februar 2023, om end den stadig ligger et godt stykke over m\u00c3\u00a5let p\u00c3\u00a5 3,25 procent.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

BCB’s uafh\u00c3\u00a6ngighed truet<\/h3>\n

Selv om der i \u00c3\u00b8jeblikket ikke er plads til en ekspansiv politik p\u00c3\u00a5 grund af inflationspresset, insisterer Lula og Arbejderpartiet p\u00c3\u00a5 at skabe \u00c3\u00b8konomisk v\u00c3\u00a6kst gennem offentlige investeringer og en st\u00c3\u00a6rk statslig indgriben i Brasiliens \u00c3\u00b8konomi. Det nuv\u00c3\u00a6rende makro\u00c3\u00b8konomiske scenarie er imidlertid anderledes end i Lulas to tidligere pr\u00c3\u00a6sidentperioder. Hans partis strategi er i direkte modstrid med BCB’s m\u00c3\u00a5l: Inflationsbek\u00c3\u00a6mpelse kr\u00c3\u00a6ver netop en \u00c3\u00b8konomisk afmatning, h\u00c3\u00b8jere arbejdsl\u00c3\u00b8shed og lavere kredittilg\u00c3\u00a6ngelighed gennem h\u00c3\u00b8jere udl\u00c3\u00a5nsrenter.<\/p>\n

Det er ikke unaturligt at diskutere den monet\u00c3\u00a6re politik i Brasilien eftersom den nuv\u00c3\u00a6rende cyklus af pengepolitiske stramninger er den mest signifikante i mere end et \u00c3\u00a5rti. Den toneangivende rente gik fra et rekordlavt niveau til det h\u00c3\u00b8jeste niveau i seks \u00c3\u00a5r p\u00c3\u00a5 blot 18 m\u00c3\u00a5neder. Det betyder, at realrenten nu er p\u00c3\u00a5 omkring 7,5 procent, hvilket er blandt de h\u00c3\u00b8jeste i verden. I mellemtiden k\u00c3\u00a6mper andre lande med negative realrenter midt i en h\u00c3\u00b8jinflationsperiode. Dette illustrerer alvoren af Brasiliens nuv\u00c3\u00a6rende stramningscyklus og derfor er pr\u00c3\u00a6sident Lula bekymret for dens indvirkning p\u00c3\u00a5 den \u00c3\u00b8konomiske aktivitet.<\/p>\n

Den interne sp\u00c3\u00a6nding i Brasilien forst\u00c3\u00a6rkes n\u00c3\u00a5r Lula og hans allierede fors\u00c3\u00b8ger at f\u00c3\u00a5 centralbanken til at s\u00c3\u00a6nke renten gennem offentlige udtalelser. Hertil kommer gadeprotester sammen med en opfordring til at h\u00c3\u00a6ve inflationsm\u00c3\u00a5let, for at retf\u00c3\u00a6rdigg\u00c3\u00b8re hans krav om renteneds\u00c3\u00a6ttelser.<\/p>\n

Denne aggressive tilgang over for BCB giver anledning til bekymring om politisk indblanding i de pengepolitiske beslutninger, hvilket investorer frygter er et angreb p\u00c3\u00a5 centralbankens uafh\u00c3\u00a6ngighed.<\/p>\n

Brasilien er ikke alene<\/h3>\n

Brasilien er et af de lande der har gjort sine erfaringer med hensyn til centralbankens uafh\u00c3\u00a6ngighed. I 2011 tog den tidligere pr\u00c3\u00a6sident Dilma Rousseff den samme tilgang til BCB, og da den bukkede under for det politiske pres, stemte det pengepolitiske udvalg for at s\u00c3\u00a6nke renten, selv om markedsforventningerne pegede p\u00c3\u00a5, at inflationen ville blive ved med at ligge over m\u00c3\u00a5let i endnu et \u00c3\u00a5r.<\/p>\n

Det samme har Tyrkiet oplevet de seneste \u00c3\u00a5r. Pr\u00c3\u00a6sident Recep Tayyip Erdogan var uenig i de renteforh\u00c3\u00b8jelser, som Tyrkiets centralbank gennemf\u00c3\u00b8rte. Pr\u00c3\u00a6sident Erdogan p\u00c3\u00a5lagde derfor centralbanken at s\u00c3\u00a6nke renten, selv om markedets forventninger til inflationen for de f\u00c3\u00b8lgende to \u00c3\u00a5r fortsat l\u00c3\u00a5 langt over de officielle m\u00c3\u00a5l. Efter flere frustrerede fors\u00c3\u00b8g p\u00c3\u00a5 at gribe ind i centralbankens pengepolitik afskedigede Erdogan centralbankdirekt\u00c3\u00b8ren i 2019 og senere fyrede han to andre centralbankdirekt\u00c3\u00b8rer, indtil han endelig fik en rentes\u00c3\u00a6nkning i september 2021. Mens renterne faldt, steg forventningerne til inflationen dramatisk i den efterf\u00c3\u00b8lgende tid. Som det fremg\u00c3\u00a5r af figur et l\u00c3\u00a5 Tyrkiets inflation i marts 2023 fortsat p\u00c3\u00a5 50,5 procent, hvilket dog er lavere end h\u00c3\u00b8jdepunktet p\u00c3\u00a5 85,5 procent i oktober 2022.<\/p>\n

\"Pr\u00c3\u00a6sident<\/p>\n

Virkninger p\u00c3\u00a5 de finansielle markeder<\/h3>\n

Det er usandsynligt, at Lula gennem sin retorik vil lykkes med at tvinge centralbanken til at s\u00c3\u00a6nke renten. Centralbanken er fast besluttet p\u00c3\u00a5 at holde renteniveauet p\u00c3\u00a5 et stramt niveau og den vil ikke t\u00c3\u00b8ve med yderligere stramninger, hvis inflationsudviklingen ikke g\u00c3\u00a5r som forventet. Dette scenarie indeb\u00c3\u00a6rer vedvarende politisk st\u00c3\u00b8j og volatilitet i finansmarkedet.<\/p>\n

Den mest direkte virkning af denne fastl\u00c3\u00a5ste situation kan ogs\u00c3\u00a5 observeres i de seneste forventninger til renteudviklingen.<\/p>\n

F\u00c3\u00b8r valget i oktober 2022 viste Focus Market Readout, en rapport som BCB udarbejder med udgangspunkt i markedsanalytikeres forventninger, at renteneds\u00c3\u00a6ttelserne ville starte i juni 2023 og bringe Selic ned til 8 percent ved udgangen af 2024. Som det fremg\u00c3\u00a5r af figur to, forventer markedsakt\u00c3\u00b8rerne efter de f\u00c3\u00b8rste tre m\u00c3\u00a5neder af Lulas regeringstid, at den toneangivende rente f\u00c3\u00b8rst bliver s\u00c3\u00a6nket fra september i \u00c3\u00a5r og frem. De nye forventninger er desuden, at Selic vil ligge p\u00c3\u00a5 10 procent ved udgangen af n\u00c3\u00a6ste \u00c3\u00a5r, og det er alts\u00c3\u00a5 noget af en forskydning ud i tiden.<\/p>\n

\"Pr\u00c3\u00a6sident<\/p>\n

Meget tyder desuden p\u00c3\u00a5, at Lulas regering griber til skattepolitikken, og vil, gennem h\u00c3\u00b8jere skatteindt\u00c3\u00a6gter, \u00c3\u00b8ge de offentlige udgifter. Hvis det bliver tilf\u00c3\u00a6ldet, s\u00c3\u00a5 forventer vi, at inflationen og renterne forbliver h\u00c3\u00b8je i l\u00c3\u00a6ngere tid end, hvad der er indregnet i finansmarkederne i dag. Derfor mener vi ikke, at det er \u00c3\u00a5benlyst at \u00c3\u00b8ge allokeringen til Brasilien i investeringsportef\u00c3\u00b8ljen, tv\u00c3\u00a6rtimod er det en fortsat underv\u00c3\u00a6gtning af det Latinamerikanske land.<\/p>\n

Men vurderingen kan vi hurtigt \u00c3\u00a6ndre, da de brasilianske renter er historisk h\u00c3\u00b8je, derfor kan enhver nyhed der peger i retning af et finanspolitisk ansvarligt milj\u00c3\u00b8 g\u00c3\u00b8re det ganske attraktivt at \u00c3\u00b8ge eksponeringen mod Brasilien.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Lulas tilgang til landets centralbank BCB har forv\u00c3\u00a6rret b\u00c3\u00a5de forventningerne til inflationen og Selic-prognoserne siden han blev valgt. Dette scenarie er en udfordring for den \u00c3\u00b8konomiske v\u00c3\u00a6kst, og obligationsrenterne har n\u00c3\u00a5et h\u00c3\u00b8je niveauer i de seneste m\u00c3\u00a5neder.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":9118,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[7,5],"class_list":["post-9113","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-spotlight","tag-featured","tag-public"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPr\u00c3\u00a6sident Lulas pres p\u00c3\u00a5 centralbanken kan bremse landets v\u00c3\u00a6kst - Lundgreens Investor Insights DK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Lulas tilgang til landets centralbank BCB har forv\u00c3\u00a6rret b\u00c3\u00a5de forventningerne til inflationen og Selic-prognoserne siden han blev valgt. Dette scenarie er en udfordring for den \u00c3\u00b8konomiske v\u00c3\u00a6kst, og obligationsrenterne har n\u00c3\u00a5et h\u00c3\u00b8je niveauer i de seneste m\u00c3\u00a5neder.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pr\u00c3\u00a6sident Lulas pres p\u00c3\u00a5 centralbanken kan bremse landets v\u00c3\u00a6kst - Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Lulas tilgang til landets centralbank BCB har forv\u00c3\u00a6rret b\u00c3\u00a5de forventningerne til inflationen og Selic-prognoserne siden han blev valgt. 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