{"id":9072,"date":"2023-04-24T07:13:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-24T05:13:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\/dk\/kinas-vaekst-overgar-forventningerne\/"},"modified":"2023-05-15T07:53:08","modified_gmt":"2023-05-15T05:53:08","slug":"kinas-vaekst-overgar-forventningerne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\/dk\/kinas-vaekst-overgar-forventningerne\/","title":{"rendered":"Kinas v\u00c3\u00a6kst overg\u00c3\u00a5r forventningerne"},"content":{"rendered":"

Jeg synes, at det var en sp\u00c3\u00a6ndende dag, den 18. april, da Kinas bnp-v\u00c3\u00a6kst for f\u00c3\u00b8rste kvartal blev offentliggjort. Og forventningen om sp\u00c3\u00a6nding blev da ogs\u00c3\u00a5 indl\u00c3\u00b8st, for en \u00c3\u00a5rlig v\u00c3\u00a6kstrate p\u00c3\u00a5 4,5 pct. i forhold til 4,o pct. (grafik et), som var den generelle markedsforventning, er nok til at give den begivenhed ekstraordin\u00c3\u00a6r opm\u00c3\u00a6rksomhed.<\/p>\n

\"Kinas

Kilde: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Kina<\/p><\/div>\n

Jeg har set en del analyser om Kinas \u00c3\u00b8konomi, der tager udgangspunkt i, at denne skal komme tilbage efter en historisk nedtur i 2022. Det lyder som om, at landets \u00c3\u00b8konomi har v\u00c3\u00a6ret i recession, men det er ikke tilf\u00c3\u00a6ldet. Sidste \u00c3\u00a5rs bnp-v\u00c3\u00a6kst blev p\u00c3\u00a5 kun 3,0 pct., hvilket er meget lavt i den moderne kinesiske \u00c3\u00b8konomis historie. Men den lave v\u00c3\u00a6kst var selvskabt idet der blev gennemf\u00c3\u00b8rt mange covid-19 relaterede nedlukninger.<\/p>\n

Den lavere v\u00c3\u00a6kst skyldes alts\u00c3\u00a5 ikke nogen pludselig opst\u00c3\u00a5et \u00c3\u00b8konomisk krise, der skal findes en l\u00c3\u00b8sning p\u00c3\u00a5. Regeringen inds\u00c3\u00a5, at de gentagne nedlukninger af \u00c3\u00b8konomien virkelig ikke blev accepteret af befolkningen, og derfor m\u00c3\u00a5tte man stoppe nedlukningerne. Den \u00c3\u00a6ndring vil i sig selv give en h\u00c3\u00b8jere v\u00c3\u00a6kst i \u00c3\u00a5r, og jeg forventer, at det bliver den st\u00c3\u00b8rste enkeltst\u00c3\u00a5ende \u00c3\u00a5rsag til den h\u00c3\u00b8jere bnp-v\u00c3\u00a6kst.<\/p>\n

En af de indenlandske centrale \u00c3\u00b8konomiske kr\u00c3\u00a6fter, som jeg har allermest fokus p\u00c3\u00a5, er detailsalget. Ogs\u00c3\u00a5 i Kina vil et stigende privatforbrug v\u00c3\u00a6re meget velkomment for at f\u00c3\u00a5 den \u00c3\u00b8konomiske v\u00c3\u00a6kst til at accelerere mere, men ogs\u00c3\u00a5 for at skabe en bredere \u00c3\u00b8konomisk v\u00c3\u00a6kst. Det ville v\u00c3\u00a6re let at argumentere for, at Kina nu br\u00c3\u00b8ler frem efter stigningen p\u00c3\u00a5 10,6 procent i detailsalget i marts (grafik to), mod en forventet v\u00c3\u00a6kst p\u00c3\u00a5 7,0 pct.<\/p>\n

\"Kinas

Kilde: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Kina<\/p><\/div>\n

For et \u00c3\u00a5r tilbage var faldet i detailsalget i perioden februar til april signifikant, hvilket giver en s\u00c3\u00a5kaldt basiseffekt. Det betyder, at der meget sandsynligt vil v\u00c3\u00a6re en stigning \u00c3\u00a5ret efter, blot fordi \u00c3\u00b8konomien g\u00c3\u00a5r tilbage mod normaliteten. Det g\u00c3\u00b8r det sv\u00c3\u00a6rt pr\u00c3\u00a6cist at bed\u00c3\u00b8mme den reelle fremgang bag den aktuelle stigning. Min vurdering er trods alt, at detailsalget i \u00c3\u00b8jeblikket vokser mere end forventet, dog er det er endnu for tidligt at konkludere, hvor stor og robust, at fremgangen er.<\/p>\n

Den meget omdiskuterede ejendomssektor er stadig svag efter de katastrofale tider for ejendomsudviklerne. Disse alvorlige vanskeligheder vil stadig tage nogen tid at overvinde, og vil forblive som en modvind i den kinesiske \u00c3\u00b8konomi. Det er min klare vurdering, at de v\u00c3\u00a6rste tider er forbi, men der mangler fortsat en konsoliderende fase.<\/p>\n

Meget interessant er det, at ejendomspriserne i det private boligmarked faktisk er stigende igen. Jeg ser det som endnu et tegn p\u00c3\u00a5 en vis stabilisering blandt private husholdninger, selvom jeg dermed p\u00c3\u00a5 ingen m\u00c3\u00a5de fors\u00c3\u00b8ger at forudsige et st\u00c3\u00a6rkt opsving p\u00c3\u00a5 det kinesiske ejendomsmarked.<\/p>\n

Investeringer foretaget i den private erhvervssektor repr\u00c3\u00a6senterer den svageste udvikling i f\u00c3\u00b8rste kvartal i Kina, hvilket kan tyde p\u00c3\u00a5 en fortsat forsigtighed. Det betragter jeg som et tegn p\u00c3\u00a5, at Kinas \u00c3\u00b8konomi langt fra er tilbage p\u00c3\u00a5 fuldt omdrejningsniveau. S\u00c3\u00a5dan en tilbageholdenhed, eller svaghed, kan samtidig v\u00c3\u00a6re potentiel kilde til volatilitet i \u00c3\u00b8konomien, idet der stadig kan ske et omsving til fuldst\u00c3\u00a6ndig stilstand. S\u00c3\u00a5danne former for usikkerhed betragter jeg som den st\u00c3\u00b8rste trussel mod den forventede h\u00c3\u00b8jere bnp-v\u00c3\u00a6kst.<\/p>\n

Det hele lyder lidt som frem og tilbage, og en balance mellem gode takter og tr\u00c3\u00a6g udvikling i forskellige omr\u00c3\u00a5der af \u00c3\u00b8konomien \u00e2\u20ac\u201c hvordan kan jeg finde det s\u00c3\u00a6rligt sp\u00c3\u00a6ndende?<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Der er et par udviklinger, som jeg till\u00c3\u00a6gger en s\u00c3\u00a6rlig betydning. Den generelle markedsforventning er en kinesisk bnp-v\u00c3\u00a6kst p\u00c3\u00a5 4,5 pct. i \u00c3\u00a5r, og \u00c3\u00b8konomien er faktisk allerede tilbage p\u00c3\u00a5 sporet. Prim\u00c3\u00a6rt bare fordi nedlukningerne er stoppet, dette viser en grundl\u00c3\u00a6ggende sund styrke i \u00c3\u00b8konomien, og meget st\u00c3\u00a6rkere end de vestlige \u00c3\u00b8konomier.<\/p>\n

Som n\u00c3\u00a6vnt, vil ejendomssektoren h\u00c3\u00b8jst sandsynligt stadig tr\u00c3\u00a6kke v\u00c3\u00a6ksten ned i Kinas \u00c3\u00b8konomi i nogen tid endnu. Det har ogs\u00c3\u00a5 en negativ betydning for segmenter der er relateret til sektoren f.eks. facility management, h\u00c3\u00a5rde hvidevarer samt anden elektronik til husholdninger og m\u00c3\u00b8bler.<\/p>\n

Som en positiv modv\u00c3\u00a6gt er eksporten bedre end forventet, der har v\u00c3\u00a6ret en stor stigning i eksport af elbiler, samt en politisk sensitiv udvikling set fra vestlig side, nemlig en stigende eksport til Rusland. Flertallet af \u00c3\u00b8konomer forventer en svagere fremgang i eksporten resten af \u00c3\u00a5ret grundet en global afmatning. Jeg argumenterer dog for, at den globale \u00c3\u00b8konomi er i bedre form end et flertal af \u00c3\u00b8konomerne mener, og derfor er jeg ikke helt s\u00c3\u00a5 negativ p\u00c3\u00a5 den front.<\/p>\n

Den grundl\u00c3\u00a6ggende kinesiske \u00c3\u00b8konomi betragter jeg som st\u00c3\u00a6rk, hvilket er en god base for et endnu mere positivt \u00c3\u00a5r 2024. Min vurdering er, at den nuv\u00c3\u00a6rende st\u00c3\u00a6rkere base med de endnu bedre udsigter for n\u00c3\u00a6ste \u00c3\u00a5r endnu ikke er indregnet i de kinesiske aktiekurser i st\u00c3\u00b8rre omfang. Desuden anser jeg stadig en r\u00c3\u00a6kke vestlige fonde for at v\u00c3\u00a6re underv\u00c3\u00a6gtede i kinesiske aktier. Disse fonde vil relativt set v\u00c3\u00a6re endnu mere bagud i markedet, n\u00c3\u00a5r det kinesiske aktiemarked begynder at bev\u00c3\u00a6ge sig h\u00c3\u00b8jere p\u00c3\u00a5 grund af den fundamentale st\u00c3\u00a6rke \u00c3\u00b8konomi \u00e2\u20ac\u201c det er sp\u00c3\u00a6ndende nok for mig.<\/p>\n

Lundgreen’s Capital r\u00c3\u00a5dgiver formuende og professionelle kunder i ind- og udland, og er repr\u00c3\u00a6senteret i Asien. Lundgreen’s Capital driver desuden investeringsforeningen Lundgreen’s Invest \u00e2\u20ac\u201c China samt flere alternative investeringsfonde. Omtales et selskab, som Lundgreen’s har investeret i, vil dette tydeligt fremg\u00c3\u00a5 af klummen.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Verdens n\u00c3\u00a6stst\u00c3\u00b8rste \u00c3\u00b8konomi er naturligvis l\u00c3\u00b8bende et tema i finansmarkedet, og op til diskussion \u00e2\u20ac\u201c efter f\u00c3\u00b8rste kvartals bnp-data er dette tilf\u00c3\u00a6ldet igen.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":9073,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[7,5],"class_list":["post-9072","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-spotlight","tag-featured","tag-public"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nKinas v\u00c3\u00a6kst overg\u00c3\u00a5r forventningerne - Lundgreens Investor Insights DK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Kinas v\u00c3\u00a6kst overg\u00c3\u00a5r forventningerne - 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