{"id":8878,"date":"2021-06-06T20:06:00","date_gmt":"2021-06-06T18:06:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\/dk\/dollaren-i-inflationens-storm-2\/"},"modified":"2022-02-17T09:29:02","modified_gmt":"2022-02-17T08:29:02","slug":"dollaren-i-inflationens-storm-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\/dk\/dollaren-i-inflationens-storm-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollaren i inflationens storm"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dollarens andel af reservevalutaerne hos verdens centralbanker er faldet gennem de seneste 25 \u00c3\u00a5r. Opg\u00c3\u00b8relser fra Den Internationale Valutafond (IMF) viser denne udvikling hvert \u00c3\u00a5r, og s\u00c3\u00a5ledes udg\u00c3\u00b8r dollaren nu knap 60 pct. af de samlede reserver hos centralbankerne, hvilket, som n\u00c3\u00a6vnt, er det laveste i 25 \u00c3\u00a5r. Dette virker jo som et validt argument i vurderingen af, at dollaren er ved at m\u00c3\u00b8de sit endeligt, men sandheden er, at f.eks. for 20 \u00c3\u00a5r siden fyldte dollaren ca. 70 pct. af de samlede reserver. S\u00c3\u00a5 \u00c3\u00a6ndringen i sammens\u00c3\u00a6tningen af reserverne er i realiteten en meget langsom bev\u00c3\u00a6gelse, og derfor p\u00c3\u00a5virker denne udvikling valutakurserne ganske lidt, og signalet i \u00c3\u00a6ndringen er heller ikke signifikant.<\/p>\n

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En anden m\u00c3\u00a5de at relativere argumentet om dollarens status som reservevaluta, er ved en sammenligning med formuen i den private sektor. Vores egen seneste samment\u00c3\u00a6lling af de samlede reserver hos centralbankerne viser reserver for ca. 15.000 milliarder dollar, hvilket er en betragtelig sum. Men, hvis man f.eks. inddrager estimaterne fra den \u00c3\u00a5rlige \u00e2\u20ac\u009dThe global wealth report\u00e2\u20ac\u009d fra den schweiziske storbank Credit Suisse, s\u00c3\u00a5 var v\u00c3\u00a6ksten i den globale private formue \/ wealth p\u00c3\u00a5 hele 36.000 milliarder dollar i 2019. Nu var det \u00c3\u00a5r s\u00c3\u00a6rligt solbeskinnet, men tallet udtrykker trods alt blot \u00c3\u00a6ndringen i den samlede formue globalt hos private investorer, hvilket skal s\u00c3\u00a6ttes i forhold til centralbankernes samlede reserver. Jeg fremdrager denne relativering fordi jeg ganske enkelt har et forbehold over for nogle af de argumenter der inddrages i diskussionen om dollarens retning i tiden.<\/p>\n

H\u00c3\u00b8j inflation er helt sikkert en trussel mod en stabil valuta, hvor USA er kommet i fokus med sin h\u00c3\u00b8je inflation (grafik et). Lige nu er inflationen stigende over hele verden, hvilket g\u00c3\u00b8r det sv\u00c3\u00a6rt at h\u00c3\u00a6vde, at en bestemt \u00c3\u00b8konomi eller valuta er i en udpr\u00c3\u00a6get risiko p\u00c3\u00a5 grund af den h\u00c3\u00b8je inflation. Derfor giver denne udvikling ikke umiddelbart anledning til, at jeg \u00c3\u00a6ndrer mit syn p\u00c3\u00a5 dollaren. Grafik to viser dollarudviklingen overfor en kurv af valutaer, og man ser, at dollaren har tabt fire til fem pct. i forbindelse med Covid-19 krisen, dog vurderer jeg bev\u00c3\u00a6gelsen som inden for almindelige udsving.<\/p>\n

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En del af den nuv\u00c3\u00a6rende bekymring for dollaren er baseret p\u00c3\u00a5 meget langsigtede udviklinger, som f.eks. udviklingen i centralbankreserverne. Disse langsigtede kr\u00c3\u00a6fter giver ikke investorer svar p\u00c3\u00a5 retningen for dollaren resten af \u00e2\u20ac\u2039\u00e2\u20ac\u2039dette \u00c3\u00a5r, og en eventuel forskel i inflationen rundt om i verden vil heller ikke foranledige st\u00c3\u00b8rre korrekturer mellem de st\u00c3\u00b8rste valutaer i \u00c3\u00a5r. Jeg forventer, at skulle dollaren tage en ny retning i de kommende seks m\u00c3\u00a5neder skal det for\u00c3\u00a5rsages af andre kr\u00c3\u00a6fter.<\/p>\n

Det globale valutamarked har dog et dysfunktionelt element, fordi den kinesiske renminbi ikke er frit flydende. Med en svag \u00c3\u00b8konomi og delvis negative renter i Eurozonen kombineret med voksende bekymring over udsigterne for den amerikanske inflation, ville resultatet under naturlige forhold v\u00c3\u00a6re en kapitalstr\u00c3\u00b8m mod Kina. I l\u00c3\u00b8bet af de sidste 3 uger har denne kapitalstr\u00c3\u00b8m fundet sted og sendt renminbien op p\u00c3\u00a5 det h\u00c3\u00b8jeste niveau i tre \u00c3\u00a5r overfor dollaren.<\/p>\n

I et frit flydende valutamarked er jeg overbevist om, at bev\u00c3\u00a6gelsen ville have v\u00c3\u00a6ret meget st\u00c3\u00b8rre, men nu er der en teknisk grund til, at valutamarkederne forbliver ret stabile. Midt i den makro\u00c3\u00b8konomiske diskussion opst\u00c3\u00a5r der derfor en pragmatisk forklaring p\u00c3\u00a5 det ret stabile valutamarked. Flere investorer overvejer helt givet en delvis tilbagetr\u00c3\u00a6kning ud af dollaren, men euroen er langt fra den mest attraktive destination, hvilket igen resulterer i en blokeret situation, som delvist forklarer, hvorfor der ikke etableres nye langsigtede bev\u00c3\u00a6gelser i valutamarkedet.<\/p>\n

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Ser man p\u00c3\u00a5 grundl\u00c3\u00a6ggende \u00c3\u00a5rsager til, at en valuta kan bev\u00c3\u00a6ge sig og, hvor reaktionen kan komme meget hurtigt s\u00c3\u00a5 er der to vigtige situationer, som jeg giver s\u00c3\u00a6rlig opm\u00c3\u00a6rksomhed. En ekstraordin\u00c3\u00a6r st\u00c3\u00a6rk krise eller frygt bev\u00c3\u00a6ger investorer, men disse to situationer f\u00c3\u00b8rer ikke n\u00c3\u00b8dvendigvis til de samme markedsreaktioner. I en st\u00c3\u00a6rk krise (krig, global katastrofe, meget store terrorhandlinger etc.) v\u00c3\u00a6lger investorer, virksomheder osv. at have et h\u00c3\u00b8jt likviditetsberedskab. Det skaffer man bl.a. ved at s\u00c3\u00a6lge finansielle aktiver, og derfor kan meget g\u00c3\u00a6ldsatte lande blive ekstraordin\u00c3\u00a6rt presset. Da USA har udviklet sig til en gigantisk debitornation, skal man derfor ikke blive overrasket, hvis dollaren falder i s\u00c3\u00a5dan en situation.<\/p>\n

Det er ikke umuligt, at nogle investorer i tiden \u00c3\u00b8ger deres bekymring mere for en egentlig st\u00c3\u00a6rk krise, mens andre investorer mere frygter uro og derfor s\u00c3\u00b8ger den sikre havn. Som n\u00c3\u00a6vnt, argumenterer jeg, at de to kr\u00c3\u00a6fter modvirker hinanden, sk\u00c3\u00b8nt det ikke virker intuitivt logisk. Yderligere et lod i sk\u00c3\u00a5len til dollarens fordel er ganske enkelt det h\u00c3\u00b8jere renteniveau i USA, specielt i forhold til euroen.<\/p>\n

Jeg er ikke i tvivl om, at under normale omst\u00c3\u00a6ndigheder ville der for l\u00c3\u00a6ngst have v\u00c3\u00a6ret startet nye lange bev\u00c3\u00a6gelser i valutamarkedet, men \u00e2\u20ac\u009dnormal\u00e2\u20ac\u009d er sat ud af spillet. Samlet set er min vurdering derfor stadig ret udramatisk, hvor en mindre dollarsv\u00c3\u00a6kkelse er en mulighed, men mit prim\u00c3\u00a6re scenarie er fortsat relativt beskedne udsving.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Den store fokus p\u00c3\u00a5 inflation har ogs\u00c3\u00a5 givet fornyet stof til diskussionen om retningen for dollaren, herunder om den eneste reservevaluta i verden ligefrem st\u00c3\u00a5r foran et regul\u00c3\u00a6rt styrtdyk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8928,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8878","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-spotlight"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDollaren i inflationens storm - Lundgreens Investor Insights DK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Dollaren i inflationens storm - Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Den store fokus p\u00c3\u00a5 inflation har ogs\u00c3\u00a5 givet fornyet stof til diskussionen om retningen for dollaren, herunder om den eneste reservevaluta i verden ligefrem st\u00c3\u00a5r foran et regul\u00c3\u00a6rt styrtdyk.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\/dk\/dollaren-i-inflationens-storm-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-06-06T18:06:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-02-17T08:29:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/030220221643876984.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"792\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"440\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Peter Lundgreen\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Peter Lundgreen\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/dollaren-i-inflationens-storm-2\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/dollaren-i-inflationens-storm-2\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Peter Lundgreen\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6a42579d43ae844d20a8676fe14dc22f\"},\"headline\":\"Dollaren i inflationens storm\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-06-06T18:06:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-02-17T08:29:02+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/dollaren-i-inflationens-storm-2\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":879,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/dollaren-i-inflationens-storm-2\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/wp-content\\\/blogs.dir\\\/1\\\/files\\\/sites\\\/4\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/030220221643876984.jpeg\",\"articleSection\":[\"\u00c3\u02dckonomisk Spotlight\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/dollaren-i-inflationens-storm-2\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/dollaren-i-inflationens-storm-2\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/dollaren-i-inflationens-storm-2\\\/\",\"name\":\"Dollaren i inflationens storm - 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