{"id":8813,"date":"2021-11-14T14:11:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-14T13:11:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\/dk\/det-bliver-slapt-pa-wall-street-i-2022\/"},"modified":"2022-02-16T08:03:25","modified_gmt":"2022-02-16T07:03:25","slug":"det-bliver-slapt-pa-wall-street-i-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\/dk\/det-bliver-slapt-pa-wall-street-i-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Det bliver slapt p\u00c3\u00a5 Wall Street i 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"

Finansmarkedet er tilbage i den behagelige rytme, hvor Wall Street s\u00c3\u00a6tter nye rekorder hver dag. Jeg kan m\u00c3\u00a6rke p\u00c3\u00a5 mange investorer, at det, ikke overraskende, bidrager til et ubekymret forhold til formuens videre udvikling. Den n\u00c3\u00a6sten daglige stigning, specielt p\u00c3\u00a5 Wall Street, f\u00c3\u00b8rer automatisk til tanken om, hvor l\u00c3\u00a6nge det kan g\u00c3\u00a5 godt? Naturligvis er det en fornuftig overvejelse, men et andet sp\u00c3\u00b8rgsm\u00c3\u00a5l er, om en stor korrektur er det centrale sp\u00c3\u00b8rgsm\u00c3\u00a5l, som en investor skal besk\u00c3\u00a6ftige sig med?<\/p>\n

Der er stadig halvanden m\u00c3\u00a5ned tilbage af dette \u00c3\u00a5r, og meget kan h\u00c3\u00a6nde endnu. Udviklingen kan stadig indeholde alt fra en k\u00c3\u00a6mpe negativ korrektur i aktiemarkedet til, at specielt amerikanske aktier slutter \u00c3\u00a5ret omkring det h\u00c3\u00b8jeste nogensinde. Hvis man tager udgangspunkt i den nuv\u00c3\u00a6rende situation, s\u00c3\u00a5 st\u00c3\u00a5r man p\u00c3\u00a5 kurstoppen i USA’s aktiemarked og ser ind i 2022, og alene for i \u00c3\u00a5r har man en stigning p\u00c3\u00a5 22,5% med i bagagen. Det kan nok f\u00c3\u00a5 en investor eller to til at synke en ekstra gang n\u00c3\u00a5r man overvejer allokeringen for 2022.<\/p>\n

Blot udviklingen i det amerikanske S & P 500 indeks gennem de seneste fem \u00c3\u00a5r mener jeg udm\u00c3\u00a6rket, at man kan uddrage noget erfaring af (grafik et). G\u00c3\u00a5r man fem \u00c3\u00a5r tilbage, til ultimo oktober 2016, og fem \u00c3\u00a5r frem s\u00c3\u00a5 har S&P 500 givet ca. 125% i afkast. Det er m\u00c3\u00a5lt i dollars, men som grafik to viser, s\u00c3\u00a5 har valutamarkedet forholdt sig ganske roligt i den periode. For en europ\u00c3\u00a6isk baseret investor har den negative valutaeffekt derfor blot v\u00c3\u00a6ret omkring fem pct., og alts\u00c3\u00a5 et netto afkast p\u00c3\u00a5 120%. Det er betragteligt mere end Euronext 100 indekset der har givet et afkast p\u00c3\u00a5 52,5% i samme periode.<\/p>\n

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Selv om man ikke besk\u00c3\u00a6ftiger sig med at investere i enkeltaktier, men udelukkende har fokus p\u00c3\u00a5 f.eks. sektorer og geografiske omr\u00c3\u00a5der, s\u00c3\u00a5 er det langt fra ligegyldigt hvilke \u00c3\u00a6g man l\u00c3\u00a6gger i sin aktiekurv. Sektorvalgene giver sig selv, her skal man finde v\u00c3\u00a6kstomr\u00c3\u00a5derne. Men S&P 500 versus Euronext 100 udtrykker bl.a. ogs\u00c3\u00a5 helt fundamentale faktorer der ikke er nogen nyhed, men typisk repr\u00c3\u00a6senterer nogle store tandhjul der drejer hele tiden.<\/p>\n

F.eks. har Europa ikke nogen Silicon Valley, end ikke en fraktion af omr\u00c3\u00a5det syd for San Francisco, og der er heller ikke udsigt til, at nogen omr\u00c3\u00a5der i Europa bev\u00c3\u00a6ger sig i den retning. P\u00c3\u00a5 trods af, at den amerikanske \u00c3\u00b8konomi er st\u00c3\u00b8rre end Eurozonen, s\u00c3\u00a5 vurderer jeg den som v\u00c3\u00a6rende v\u00c3\u00a6sentligt mere fleksibel, og heller ikke her ser jeg nogen \u00c3\u00a6ndring. Begge er eksempler p\u00c3\u00a5 elementer der har en signifikant betydning for aktiemarkedernes udvikling p\u00c3\u00a5 lang sigt.<\/p>\n

I \u00c3\u00a5revis har jeg argumenteret for, at investorer i den geografiske allokering skulle underv\u00c3\u00a6gte Eurozonen. Selv med den meget store forskel i afkastet p\u00c3\u00a5 de to n\u00c3\u00a6vnte aktieindeks s\u00c3\u00a5 ser jeg ingen \u00c3\u00a5rsag til, at \u00c3\u00a6ndre anbefalingen af en underv\u00c3\u00a6gtning af Eurozonen, ogs\u00c3\u00a5 n\u00c3\u00a5r man ser ind i 2022. Det eneste skulle v\u00c3\u00a6re en justering, hvis amerikanske aktier begynder at fylde for meget i portef\u00c3\u00b8ljen.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Jeg forst\u00c3\u00a5r dog udm\u00c3\u00a6rket bekymringen for en korrektur i USA’s aktiemarked. Den kan blive 20% og komme ud af ingenting, hvilket dog p\u00c3\u00a5kr\u00c3\u00a6ver, at aktiemarkedet er decideret overvurderet. Min egen \u00c3\u00a5rtier lange erfaring er, at en korrektur af signifikant st\u00c3\u00b8rrelse er utrolig sv\u00c3\u00a6r at forudsige, og desuden skal timingen v\u00c3\u00a6re fuldst\u00c3\u00a6ndig perfekt. Scenariet man ofte oplever er, at investorer m\u00c3\u00a5ske f\u00c3\u00a5r ret i en korrektur p\u00c3\u00a5 15% men aktiemarkedet n\u00c3\u00a5ede at stige 30% inden da, ergo er det et d\u00c3\u00a5rligt nettoresultat.<\/p>\n

Hvis man opfanger, og forudser, en stor korrektur i starten af bev\u00c3\u00a6gelsen s\u00c3\u00a5 er det da helt naturligt at reagere p\u00c3\u00a5 udviklingen, og dermed reducere sin risiko, jeg vil selvf\u00c3\u00b8lgelig ingenlunde opfordre til passivitet. Jeg ser risikoen for en korrektur som mere overh\u00c3\u00a6ngende end den har v\u00c3\u00a6ret, men det er omvendt ogs\u00c3\u00a5 risikoen, som jeg vurderer den lige nu \u00e2\u20ac\u201c ikke brandvarm, men den er sted i yderkanten af radarsk\u00c3\u00a6rmen.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

N\u00c3\u00a5r jeg ser ind i 2022, er den kr\u00c3\u00a6vende vurdering om de f\u00c3\u00b8rn\u00c3\u00a6vnte store tandhjul fortsat vil dreje med den hastighed, som er indregnet i aktiekurserne. I Eurozonen f\u00c3\u00a5r EU’s hj\u00c3\u00a6lpepakker p\u00c3\u00a5 et tidspunkt en effekt, men risikoen er, at investorerne ser igennem hj\u00c3\u00a6lpepakkerne, og dermed ikke vurderer, at hj\u00c3\u00a6lpen har en langfristet positiv effekt p\u00c3\u00a5 aktiemarkedet.<\/p>\n

Dermed ender den prim\u00c3\u00a6re fokus igen med at v\u00c3\u00a6re p\u00c3\u00a5 Wall Street, og her mener jeg ikke, at man ikke skal underkende risikoen for, at det forventede \u00c3\u00b8konomiske opsving i USA bliver udskudt yderligere, eller ligefrem l\u00c3\u00b8ber ud i sandet.<\/p>\n

Hertil kommer risikoen for en tiltagende investorbekymring for, om de amerikanske myndigheder vil komme med tiltag overfor nogle af de store tech-virksomheder. Min vurdering er lige nu, at den st\u00c3\u00b8rste risiko for det amerikanske aktiemarked til n\u00c3\u00a6ste \u00c3\u00a5r, er, at de bekymringer f\u00c3\u00b8rer til, at Wall Street mister sit momentum, hvilket i l\u00c3\u00b8bet af \u00c3\u00a5ret kunne f\u00c3\u00a5 investorer til at reducere deres aktieallokeringer i jagten p\u00c3\u00a5 afkast andre steder.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gennem 2021 har der v\u00c3\u00a6ret en vis frygt for en stor korrektur i aktiemarkedet, men den reelle risiko kunne ogs\u00c3\u00a5 se anderledes ud.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8940,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8813","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-spotlight"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDet bliver slapt p\u00c3\u00a5 Wall Street i 2022 - Lundgreens Investor Insights DK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Det bliver slapt p\u00c3\u00a5 Wall Street i 2022 - Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Gennem 2021 har der v\u00c3\u00a6ret en vis frygt for en stor korrektur i aktiemarkedet, men den reelle risiko kunne ogs\u00c3\u00a5 se anderledes ud.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\/dk\/det-bliver-slapt-pa-wall-street-i-2022\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-11-14T13:11:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-02-16T07:03:25+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/030220221643877037.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"726\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"481\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Peter Lundgreen\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Peter Lundgreen\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/det-bliver-slapt-pa-wall-street-i-2022\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/det-bliver-slapt-pa-wall-street-i-2022\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Peter Lundgreen\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6a42579d43ae844d20a8676fe14dc22f\"},\"headline\":\"Det bliver slapt p\u00c3\u00a5 Wall Street i 2022\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-11-14T13:11:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-02-16T07:03:25+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/det-bliver-slapt-pa-wall-street-i-2022\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":881,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/det-bliver-slapt-pa-wall-street-i-2022\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/wp-content\\\/blogs.dir\\\/1\\\/files\\\/sites\\\/4\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/030220221643877037.jpeg\",\"articleSection\":[\"\u00c3\u02dckonomisk Spotlight\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/det-bliver-slapt-pa-wall-street-i-2022\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/det-bliver-slapt-pa-wall-street-i-2022\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/det-bliver-slapt-pa-wall-street-i-2022\\\/\",\"name\":\"Det bliver slapt p\u00c3\u00a5 Wall Street i 2022 - 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