{"id":8811,"date":"2021-11-10T16:11:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-10T15:11:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\/dk\/aktieinvestorernes-jagt-pa-afkast\/"},"modified":"2022-02-16T08:01:23","modified_gmt":"2022-02-16T07:01:23","slug":"aktieinvestorernes-jagt-pa-afkast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\/dk\/aktieinvestorernes-jagt-pa-afkast\/","title":{"rendered":"Aktieinvestorernes jagt p\u00c3\u00a5 afkast"},"content":{"rendered":"

Den amerikanske centralbank Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) annoncerede i sidste uge, at centralbanken nu begynder at reducere sit opk\u00c3\u00b8b af obligationer (grafik et viser beholdningen af statsobligationer). For et \u00c3\u00a5r siden ville denne meddelelse have sendt det amerikanske aktiemarked direkte i d\u00c3\u00b8rken, men det skete ikke i den forl\u00c3\u00b8bne uge.<\/p>\n

Den reaktion var umiddelbart en god nyhed for aktieinvestorer og, hvis man ser tilbage p\u00c3\u00a5 Feds retorik gennem 2021, s\u00c3\u00a5 har centralbanken endnu en gang mestret kommunikationen til markedet s\u00c3\u00a6rdeles godt, hvilket fortjener anerkendelse. Trods den afslappede reaktion i denne uge, s\u00c3\u00a5 vurderer jeg dog stadig, at aktiefesten i USA bliver sat p\u00c3\u00a5 \u00e2\u20ac\u009dhold\u00e2\u20ac\u009d i en periode.<\/p>\n

Den forel\u00c3\u00b8bigt opmuntrende reaktion efter Feds meddelelse i sidste uge \u00c3\u00a6ndrer ikke ved mit prim\u00c3\u00a6re scenarie frem til slut n\u00c3\u00a6ste \u00c3\u00a5r. B\u00c3\u00a5de den amerikanske og den globale \u00c3\u00b8konomi er p\u00c3\u00a5 vej frem igen, og mange store virksomheder rapporterer stadig gode regnskabstal. Dette er dog allerede indregnet i aktiekurserne et par gange, og desuden er den makro\u00c3\u00b8konomiske fremgang forsinket i forhold til forventningerne. Reelt set burde forsinkelsen i forventningerne v\u00c3\u00a6re en skuffelse, men omvendt er der, som n\u00c3\u00a6vnt, fremgang. Derfor er mit prim\u00c3\u00a6re scenarie fortsat, ogs\u00c3\u00a5 efter Feds meddelelse i denne uge, at aktiemarkederne i USA og Eurozonen til n\u00c3\u00a6ste \u00c3\u00a5r vil udvikle sig relativt fladt. Luften er blevet tyndere, men udsigten for det helt store kursdyk er ikke en voldsom trussel lige nu. I mit prim\u00c3\u00a6re scenarie indg\u00c3\u00a5r derfor ogs\u00c3\u00a5, at investorer i stigende grad vil s\u00c3\u00b8ge mod andre gr\u00c3\u00a6sgange med h\u00c3\u00a5bet om, at gr\u00c3\u00a6sset er gr\u00c3\u00b8nnere der. Grafik to viser for eksempel den tiltagende s\u00c3\u00b8gning mod private equity.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Den s\u00c3\u00b8gen vil bringe et stigende antal investorer i forskellige retninger, hvor risiciene lige pludselig f\u00c3\u00a5r flere dimensioner. \u00c3\u2030n bev\u00c3\u00a6gelse, som jeg forventer snart vil tiltage er en stigende kapitalbev\u00c3\u00a6gelse i retning Emerging Markets lande (hvor jeg ikke betragter Kina som et Emerging Markets land l\u00c3\u00a6ngere). Det lyder blot som en almindelig \u00c3\u00a6ndring i allokeringen, men Covid-19 har efter min vurdering \u00c3\u00a6ndret Emerging Markets landskabet ganske betragteligt.<\/p>\n

N\u00c3\u00a5r Emerging Markets landene \u00c3\u00a5bner op s\u00c3\u00a5 argumenterer jeg, at det definitivt er tid til at allokere mere af portef\u00c3\u00b8ljen i den retning. Dog er jeg mest komfortabel med ASEAN-omr\u00c3\u00a5det, alts\u00c3\u00a5 det klassiske Fjern\u00c3\u00b8sten, og derfor er det v\u00c3\u00a6rd at studere, hvad de forskellige investeringsforeninger \/ fonde indeholder, desuden h\u00c3\u00a6lder jeg pt. til at fastholde investeringerne i lokal valuta (frem for de s\u00c3\u00a5kaldte h\u00c3\u00a5rde valutaer, typisk dollar, euro, britiske pund etc.).<\/p>\n

De samme overvejelser g\u00c3\u00a6lder naturligvis for de investorer der \u00c3\u00b8ger allokeringen til Emerging Markets obligationer. Her foretr\u00c3\u00a6kker jeg i tiden portef\u00c3\u00b8ljer, hvor der kun er en mindre andel af obligationer med lav kreditkvalitet (f.eks. CCC til C i Standard & Poor’s termer). Men trods udsigten til stigende renter er jeg mere komfortabel med en l\u00c3\u00a6ngere varighed i portef\u00c3\u00b8ljen.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Blot skal man huske, at ASEAN-landene kun udg\u00c3\u00b8r 3 pct. af den globale \u00c3\u00b8konomi og derfor ikke et s\u00c3\u00a6rligt stort alternativt, hvis man laver en mellem til stor \u00c3\u00a6ndring i den samlede portef\u00c3\u00b8lje. Jeg forventer derfor ogs\u00c3\u00a5, at der allerede om 12 til 15 m\u00c3\u00a5neder er en stor sandsynlighed for, at investorer samlet set har over-allokeret til ASEAN-landene, men den udfordring kommer til den tid.<\/p>\n

Det er samtidig ogs\u00c3\u00a5 et eksempel p\u00c3\u00a5, hvorfor globale investorer ikke bare reducerer deres allokering til amerikanske aktier med 25 pct., for man skal jo placere midlerne et sted.<\/p>\n

Ogs\u00c3\u00a5 private investorer vil til n\u00c3\u00a6ste \u00c3\u00a5r s\u00c3\u00b8ge videre, hvor et andet risikoelement man derfor skal v\u00c3\u00a6re s\u00c3\u00a6rdeles opm\u00c3\u00a6rksom p\u00c3\u00a5, er oms\u00c3\u00a6tteligheden af investeringen. Al investeringsteori siger, at jo l\u00c3\u00a6ngere investeringens horisont er, desto h\u00c3\u00b8jere skal afkastet v\u00c3\u00a6re, hvilket giver god mening. I den forbindelse bliver investorer i stigende grad m\u00c3\u00b8dt med meget lange bindingsperioder, m\u00c3\u00a5ske seks til syv \u00c3\u00a5r. Umiddelbart kan et afkast virke attraktivt, men man skal virkelig overveje, hvad det betyder ikke at have adgang til sin likviditet i s\u00c3\u00a5 lang en periode. For mange er dette en ny risikoovervejelse, og det kan v\u00c3\u00a6re sv\u00c3\u00a6rt at vurdere forskellige muligheder, hvis investor, som alternativ f.eks. kan ind- og udtr\u00c3\u00a6de af sin investering hver tredje m\u00c3\u00a5ned men med 1\u00c2\u00bd procentpoint lavere afkast.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

De evigt stigende kurser de seneste 10 \u00c3\u00a5r har resulteret i en slags risikom\u00c3\u00a6ssig fartblindhed, hvor der har v\u00c3\u00a6ret rigeligt med afkast og adgang til likviditet. Der er en risiko for, at dette har sl\u00c3\u00b8vet risikoforst\u00c3\u00a5elsen, specielt vedr\u00c3\u00b8rende en investeringsportef\u00c3\u00b8ljes oms\u00c3\u00a6ttelighed, eller likviditet om man vil.<\/p>\n

Man oplever udviklingen mange steder i finansmarkederne, hvor f.eks. betingelserne i l\u00c3\u00a5nedokumentationen ved udstedelse af erhvervsobligationer (det man kalder \u00e2\u20ac\u009dgovernance\u00e2\u20ac\u009d) er blevet udvandet kraftigt til ugunst for investorerne. I den sidste tid har de store kreditvurderingsbureauer Standard & Poor’s samt Moody’s udtrykt bekymring vedr\u00c3\u00b8rende udstedelsen af visse kreditobligationer.<\/p>\n

Jeg betragter ogs\u00c3\u00a5 denne bekymring som en effekt af den mulige tiltagende risikom\u00c3\u00a6ssige \u00e2\u20ac\u009dfartblindhed\u00e2\u20ac\u009d. I jagten p\u00c3\u00a5 n\u00c3\u00a6ste \u00c3\u00a5rs afkast skal man ikke v\u00c3\u00a6re bange for de mange forskellige risici, men, som altid, s\u00c3\u00a5 er den bedste investering den tid man bruger p\u00c3\u00a5 at forst\u00c3\u00a5 en investering.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Wall Street modtog beskeden om USAs n\u00c3\u00a6ste monet\u00c3\u00a6re stramning s\u00c3\u00a6rdeles p\u00c3\u00a6nt, men investorer kunne meget vel s\u00c3\u00b8ge mod nye muligheder, og dermed nye risici.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8939,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8811","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-spotlight"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAktieinvestorernes jagt p\u00c3\u00a5 afkast - Lundgreens Investor Insights DK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Aktieinvestorernes jagt p\u00c3\u00a5 afkast - Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Wall Street modtog beskeden om USAs n\u00c3\u00a6ste monet\u00c3\u00a6re stramning s\u00c3\u00a6rdeles p\u00c3\u00a6nt, men investorer kunne meget vel s\u00c3\u00b8ge mod nye muligheder, og dermed nye risici.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\/dk\/aktieinvestorernes-jagt-pa-afkast\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-11-10T15:11:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-02-16T07:01:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/030220221643877034.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"724\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"483\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Peter Lundgreen\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Peter Lundgreen\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/aktieinvestorernes-jagt-pa-afkast\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/aktieinvestorernes-jagt-pa-afkast\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Peter Lundgreen\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6a42579d43ae844d20a8676fe14dc22f\"},\"headline\":\"Aktieinvestorernes jagt p\u00c3\u00a5 afkast\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-11-10T15:11:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-02-16T07:01:23+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/aktieinvestorernes-jagt-pa-afkast\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":892,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/aktieinvestorernes-jagt-pa-afkast\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/wp-content\\\/blogs.dir\\\/1\\\/files\\\/sites\\\/4\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/030220221643877034.jpeg\",\"articleSection\":[\"\u00c3\u02dckonomisk Spotlight\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/aktieinvestorernes-jagt-pa-afkast\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/aktieinvestorernes-jagt-pa-afkast\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/aktieinvestorernes-jagt-pa-afkast\\\/\",\"name\":\"Aktieinvestorernes jagt p\u00c3\u00a5 afkast - 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