{"id":8700,"date":"2021-05-30T21:05:00","date_gmt":"2021-05-30T19:05:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\/dk\/ecb-og-det-vaerste-resultat-af-alle\/"},"modified":"2022-02-16T08:22:13","modified_gmt":"2022-02-16T07:22:13","slug":"ecb-og-det-vaerste-resultat-af-alle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\/dk\/ecb-og-det-vaerste-resultat-af-alle\/","title":{"rendered":"ECB og det v\u00c3\u00a6rste resultat af alle"},"content":{"rendered":"

Den 10. juni er der ordin\u00c3\u00a6rt m\u00c3\u00b8de i Styrelsesr\u00c3\u00a5det hos Den Europ\u00c3\u00a6iske Centralbank (ECB), og jeg er ikke i tvivl om, at dette m\u00c3\u00b8de f\u00c3\u00a5r s\u00c3\u00a6rdeles stor fokus i finansmarkederne fra n\u00c3\u00a6r og fjern. Beslutningen, der skal tr\u00c3\u00a6ffes, indeholder et par udfordringer, specielt n\u00c3\u00a5r man i forvejen er malet op i et hj\u00c3\u00b8rne.<\/p>\n

Heller ikke ECB’s pengepolitiske vogtere kan undg\u00c3\u00a5 at skulle besk\u00c3\u00a6ftige sig med den stigende inflation, for som grafik et er et eksempel p\u00c3\u00a5, s\u00c3\u00a5 er inflationen vendt tilbage for en stund. I USA har det v\u00c3\u00a6ret us\u00c3\u00a6dvanlig at betragte, hvor mange l\u00c3\u00a6rde der har deltaget i inflationsdiskussionen og p\u00c3\u00a5, hvor h\u00c3\u00b8jt et niveau temaet vedblivende er blevet behandlet \u00e2\u20ac\u201c det er ikke s\u00c3\u00a5 ofte, at det sker. At udviklingen i inflationen er relevant, har v\u00c3\u00a6ret tydelig gennem de sidste tre til fire m\u00c3\u00a5neder, eller i det mindste har den stigende inflation v\u00c3\u00a6ret hovedforklaringen p\u00c3\u00a5 mange investorers sorger. I den diskussion har ECB indtil videre kunne holde sig ude af rampelyset, hvor den tydeligste reaktion kom f\u00c3\u00b8rst p\u00c3\u00a5 \u00c3\u00a5ret da obligationsrenterne steg. Her meddelte ECB blot, at man \u00c3\u00b8ger opk\u00c3\u00b8bet af obligationer, men nu er den globale \u00c3\u00b8konomi p\u00c3\u00a5 vej fremad igen og inflationen er steget signifikant \u00e2\u20ac\u201c hvad s\u00c3\u00a5 ECB ?<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Umiddelbart bliver sp\u00c3\u00b8rgsm\u00c3\u00a5let den 10. juni om ECB skal v\u00c3\u00a6lge at opk\u00c3\u00b8be for mindre end de nuv\u00c3\u00a6rende 80 milliarder EUR (600 milliarder kr.), som centralbanken, hver m\u00c3\u00a5ned opk\u00c3\u00b8ber obligationer for? Ser man p\u00c3\u00a5 andre lande, s\u00c3\u00a5 har flere centralbanker allerede reageret p\u00c3\u00a5 vendingen i den globale \u00c3\u00b8konomi. Det der sker, er at \u00e2\u20ac\u009dlette foden fra den monet\u00c3\u00a6re speeder\u00e2\u20ac\u009d, som det bliver formuleret, alts\u00c3\u00a5, at f.eks. st\u00c3\u00b8tteopk\u00c3\u00b8b af obligationer forts\u00c3\u00a6tter, men i lavere tempo.<\/p>\n

Styrelsesr\u00c3\u00a5det hos ECB kan let komme under stress i den nuv\u00c3\u00a6rende situation af den simple grund, at \u00c3\u00b8konomien i Eurozonen har v\u00c3\u00a6ret under langvarigt pres. I min optik har de sydeurop\u00c3\u00a6iske \u00c3\u00b8konomier aldrig f\u00c3\u00a5et rystet den globale finanskrise af sig, og erfaringen viser, at p\u00c3\u00a5 et tidspunkt s\u00c3\u00a5 kommer den n\u00c3\u00a6ste \u00c3\u00b8konomiske krise. S\u00c3\u00a5 det er ikke en nem opgave for ECB, det at skulle drive pengepolitik i en \u00c3\u00b8konomi der sakker l\u00c3\u00a6ngere og l\u00c3\u00a6ngere bagud i forhold til de to \u00c3\u00b8konomiske supermagter, USA og Kina.<\/p>\n

Under Covid-19-pandemien i Kina lempede centralbanken pengepolitikken, dog ikke til det ekstreme. Det betyder, at det er udramatisk at stramme pengepolitikken til niveauet f\u00c3\u00b8r krisen, og siden starten af \u00e2\u20ac\u2039\u00e2\u20ac\u2039dette \u00c3\u00a5r har centralbanken taget de f\u00c3\u00b8rste skridt mod normaliteten, men ret langsomt, og dette burde ikke forstyrre investorerne m\u00c3\u00a6rkbart.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

I USA var den monet\u00c3\u00a6re reaktion p\u00c3\u00a5 Covid-19-krisen tv\u00c3\u00a6rtimod meget signifikant og bem\u00c3\u00a6rkelsesv\u00c3\u00a6rdig hurtig. Siden da har den amerikanske centralbank (Fed) allerede \u00c3\u00a5bent diskuteret, at en midlertidig inflation p\u00c3\u00a5 tre pct. ikke vil g\u00c3\u00b8re dem nerv\u00c3\u00b8se. Fed var s\u00c3\u00a5 sikker i den opfattelse, at de meget tidligt meddelte at holde renten p\u00c3\u00a5 det nuv\u00c3\u00a6rende niveau indtil udgangen af \u00e2\u20ac\u2039\u00e2\u20ac\u20392022.<\/p>\n

Dette er tunge pengepolitiske beslutninger, men p\u00c3\u00a5 trods af dette s\u00c3\u00a5 har Fed en meget sund forst\u00c3\u00a5else og respekt for finansmarkederne. Det har man f.eks. ogs\u00c3\u00a5 kunne observere i l\u00c3\u00b8bet af de sidste m\u00c3\u00a5neder, mens den 10-\u00c3\u00a5rige rente for amerikanske statsobligationer steg til 1,75 pct. Det har allerede betydet p\u00c3\u00a6ne udsving p\u00c3\u00a5 finansmarkederne, hvilket er naturligt, og de fleste investorer vil komme igennem s\u00c3\u00a5dan en periode uden skrammer. Det v\u00c3\u00a6sentlige i udviklingen i USA er dog den parallelle bev\u00c3\u00a6gelse der har v\u00c3\u00a6ret mellem den h\u00c3\u00b8jere inflation og renterne i obligationsmarkedet.<\/p>\n

Den positive konsekvens er, at realrenten i USA fortsat er t\u00c3\u00a6t p\u00c3\u00a5 nul for f.eks. statsobligationer med 10-\u00c3\u00a5rs l\u00c3\u00b8betid, hvilket betyder, at en negativ realrente i det mindste ikke sk\u00c3\u00a6vvrider priserne p\u00c3\u00a5 finansielle aktiver til det yderste. De enorme m\u00c3\u00a6ngder af likviditet, som der fortsat findes i det finansielle system i mange \u00c3\u00b8konomier, presser allerede priserne p\u00c3\u00a5 finansielle aktiver op til meget h\u00c3\u00b8je niveauer, men negative realrenter f\u00c3\u00b8rer til endnu mere gearing og spekulative k\u00c3\u00b8b af alle slags aktiver.<\/p>\n

Renten p\u00c3\u00a5 tyske 10-\u00c3\u00a5rige statsobligationer er ganske rigtigt steget med 0,40 procentpoint i \u00c3\u00a5r (grafik to), men den er stadig omkring minus 0,20 pct. mod den nuv\u00c3\u00a6rende inflation p\u00c3\u00a5 to pct., alts\u00c3\u00a5 en negativ p\u00c3\u00a5 realrente over to pct., hvilket er ganske meget. Inflationen k\u00c3\u00b8ler formentlig af igen, men risikoen for en yderligere stigning er jo til stede. Alternativt kan det h\u00c3\u00b8jere inflationsniveau forblive h\u00c3\u00b8jt i l\u00c3\u00a6ngere tid, hvilket ikke er umuligt.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Men tilbage til den 10. juni, hvor det efter min vurdering er sandsynligt, at flertallet af medlemmerne i Styrelsesr\u00c3\u00a5det frygter at for\u00c3\u00a5rsage h\u00c3\u00b8jere renter p\u00c3\u00a5 statsg\u00c3\u00a6lden i Eurozonen. Derfor kan udgangen p\u00c3\u00a5 m\u00c3\u00b8det meget vel blive en fortsat maksimal st\u00c3\u00b8tte til de halvsl\u00c3\u00b8je sydeurop\u00c3\u00a6iske \u00c3\u00b8konomier – i stedet for at anmode regeringerne om at reformere deres \u00c3\u00b8konomier. Resultatet er en risiko for en langvarig situation med m\u00c3\u00a6rkbare negative realrenter, som igen kan udl\u00c3\u00b8se endnu mere prisinflation p\u00c3\u00a5 finansielle aktiver. S\u00c3\u00a5dant et investeringsmilj\u00c3\u00b8 kan v\u00c3\u00a6re en udfordring for investorer, da prisfasts\u00c3\u00a6ttelsen af \u00e2\u20ac\u2039\u00e2\u20ac\u2039finansielle aktiver risikerer at blive sp\u00c3\u00a6ndt til det yderste. Den bedste l\u00c3\u00b8sning i den slags finansmarkeder er at reducere risici og positioner, hvilket er et andet udtryk for, at investorer forlader Eurozonen – det v\u00c3\u00a6rste resultat af alle\u00e2\u20ac\u00a6<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Inflationen er pt. stigende, finansmarkederne har allerede reageret, men ECB mangler fortsat at reagere og derfor bliver den 10. juni en s\u00c3\u00a6rlig sp\u00c3\u00a6ndende dag for investorer.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8926,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8700","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-spotlight"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nECB og det v\u00c3\u00a6rste resultat af alle - Lundgreens Investor Insights DK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ECB og det v\u00c3\u00a6rste resultat af alle - Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Inflationen er pt. stigende, finansmarkederne har allerede reageret, men ECB mangler fortsat at reagere og derfor bliver den 10. juni en s\u00c3\u00a6rlig sp\u00c3\u00a6ndende dag for investorer.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\/dk\/ecb-og-det-vaerste-resultat-af-alle\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-05-30T19:05:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-02-16T07:22:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/030220221643876983.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"734\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"475\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Peter Lundgreen\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Peter Lundgreen\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/ecb-og-det-vaerste-resultat-af-alle\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/ecb-og-det-vaerste-resultat-af-alle\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Peter Lundgreen\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6a42579d43ae844d20a8676fe14dc22f\"},\"headline\":\"ECB og det v\u00c3\u00a6rste resultat af alle\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-05-30T19:05:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-02-16T07:22:13+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/ecb-og-det-vaerste-resultat-af-alle\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":933,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/ecb-og-det-vaerste-resultat-af-alle\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/wp-content\\\/blogs.dir\\\/1\\\/files\\\/sites\\\/4\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/030220221643876983.jpeg\",\"articleSection\":[\"\u00c3\u02dckonomisk Spotlight\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/ecb-og-det-vaerste-resultat-af-alle\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/ecb-og-det-vaerste-resultat-af-alle\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lundgreenswp.websiteprojectupdates.com\\\/dk\\\/ecb-og-det-vaerste-resultat-af-alle\\\/\",\"name\":\"ECB og det v\u00c3\u00a6rste resultat af alle - 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